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perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2019/07/31 23:36] filination [Perceptions of Probability and Numbers] |
perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2022/06/08 17:51] (current) filination |
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| * [[https://github.com/zonination/perceptions/blob/master/probly.csv|The data]] | * [[https://github.com/zonination/perceptions/blob/master/probly.csv|The data]] | ||
| * [[http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T|Here's how people view the difference between something being 'highly likely' and it being just 'probable']] | * [[http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T|Here's how people view the difference between something being 'highly likely' and it being just 'probable']] | ||
| + | * [[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.sci-hub.tw/doi/abs/10.1002/for.3980010305|Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 257–269. doi:10.1002/for.3980010305]] | ||
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| * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/NewScaleAssesPercepChance.pdf|New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study]] | * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/NewScaleAssesPercepChance.pdf|New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study]] | ||
| * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/50-50Redistributing.pdf|What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities]] | * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/50-50Redistributing.pdf|What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities]] | ||
| + | * [[https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0213522|Verbal probabilities: Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers]] (PLOSONe, 2019) | ||
| + | * [[https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.181870|Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, RSOS, 2019]] | ||
| + | * [[https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is|If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin July 03, 2018]] | ||
| + | * [[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597822000504|What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low (OBHDP, 2022)]] | ||
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| Where I left off (open working links): | Where I left off (open working links): | ||
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| * https://github.com/zonination/perceptions | * https://github.com/zonination/perceptions | ||
| * https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html | * https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html | ||
| + | * https://www.cia.gov/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf | ||
| More examples: | More examples: | ||