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--- perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2017/08/30 23:24]
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+++ perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2022/06/08 17:51] (current)
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     * [[https://github.com/zonination/perceptions/blob/master/probly.csv|The data]]
   * [[http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T|Here's how people view the difference between something being 'highly likely' and it being just 'probable']]
+  * [[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.sci-hub.tw/doi/abs/10.1002/for.3980010305|Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 257–269. doi:10.1002/for.3980010305]]
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   * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/NewScaleAssesPercepChance.pdf|New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study]]
   * [[http://sds.hss.cmu.edu/risk/articles/50-50Redistributing.pdf|What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities]]
+  * [[https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0213522|Verbal probabilities: Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers]] (PLOSONe, 2019)
+  * [[https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.181870|Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, RSOS, 2019]]
+  * [[https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is|If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin July 03, 2018]]
+  * [[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0749597822000504|What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low (OBHDP, 2022)]]
+Where I left off (open working links):
+  * http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T
+  * https://mirkomazzoleni.github.io/storytelling/2016/12/17/perception_of_probability/
+  * http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/03/what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
+  * http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/02/what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
+  * http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/02/part-2-to-kent-and-beyond-what-do-words.html
+  * https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html
+  * https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/vol1no5.htm
+  * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability
+  * https://github.com/zonination/perceptions
+  * https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html
+  * https://www.cia.gov/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf
+More examples:
+  * [[https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.09686|Variability in the interpretation of Dutch probability phrases - a risk for miscommunication]] (arXiv.org preprint)
+solid literature:
+  * [[http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.2052/full|More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates]] (BDM, 2017)
+  * [[https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/7D84E452710ACCC6A35D49B8590B614F/S0140525X17001960a.pdf/folkeconomic_beliefs_an_evolutionary_cognitive_model.pdf|Folk-Economic Beliefs: An Evolutionary Cognitive Model]]
+  - [[http://science.sciencemag.org/content/333/6048/1393.full|Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future]] (Science, 2011)
+===== Cultural differences =====
+{{::h4ybnan.jpg?direct&300|}}
+(can't find the source of where it's from, there's no credit)