perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers

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perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2017/08/30 23:24]
filination created
perceptions_of_probability_and_numbers [2022/06/08 17:51] (current)
filination
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     * [[https://​github.com/​zonination/​perceptions/​blob/​master/​probly.csv|The data]]     * [[https://​github.com/​zonination/​perceptions/​blob/​master/​probly.csv|The data]]
   * [[http://​www.businessinsider.com/​quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?​international=true&​r=US&​IR=T|Here'​s how people view the difference between something being '​highly likely'​ and it being just '​probable'​]]   * [[http://​www.businessinsider.com/​quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?​international=true&​r=US&​IR=T|Here'​s how people view the difference between something being '​highly likely'​ and it being just '​probable'​]]
 +  * [[https://​onlinelibrary.wiley.com.sci-hub.tw/​doi/​abs/​10.1002/​for.3980010305|Beyth-Marom,​ R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting,​ 1(3), 257–269. doi:​10.1002/​for.3980010305]]
  
  
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   * [[http://​sds.hss.cmu.edu/​risk/​articles/​NewScaleAssesPercepChance.pdf|New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study]]   * [[http://​sds.hss.cmu.edu/​risk/​articles/​NewScaleAssesPercepChance.pdf|New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study]]
   * [[http://​sds.hss.cmu.edu/​risk/​articles/​50-50Redistributing.pdf|What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?:​ Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities]]   * [[http://​sds.hss.cmu.edu/​risk/​articles/​50-50Redistributing.pdf|What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?:​ Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities]]
 +  * [[https://​journals.plos.org/​plosone/​article?​id=10.1371/​journal.pone.0213522|Verbal probabilities:​ Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers]] (PLOSONe, 2019)
 +  * [[https://​royalsocietypublishing.org/​doi/​full/​10.1098/​rsos.181870|Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, RSOS, 2019]]
 +  * [[https://​hbr.org/​2018/​07/​if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is|If You Say Something Is “Likely,​” How Likely Do People Think It Is? by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin July 03, 2018]]
 +  * [[https://​www.sciencedirect.com/​science/​article/​pii/​S0749597822000504|What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low (OBHDP, 2022)]]
 +
 +
 +Where I left off (open working links):
 +  * http://​www.businessinsider.com/​quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?​international=true&​r=US&​IR=T
 +  * https://​mirkomazzoleni.github.io/​storytelling/​2016/​12/​17/​perception_of_probability/​
 +  * http://​sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/​2008/​03/​what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
 +  * http://​sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/​2008/​02/​what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
 +  * http://​sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/​2008/​02/​part-2-to-kent-and-beyond-what-do-words.html
 +  * https://​www.cia.gov/​library/​center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/​csi-publications/​books-and-monographs/​sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/​6words.html
 +  * https://​www.cia.gov/​library/​kent-center-occasional-papers/​vol1no5.htm
 +  * https://​en.wikipedia.org/​wiki/​Words_of_estimative_probability
 +  * https://​github.com/​zonination/​perceptions
 +  * https://​www.cia.gov/​library/​center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/​csi-publications/​books-and-monographs/​psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/​art15.html
 +  * https://​www.cia.gov/​static/​9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/​Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf
 +
 +More examples:
 +  * [[https://​arxiv.org/​abs/​1901.09686|Variability in the interpretation of Dutch probability phrases - a risk for miscommunication]] (arXiv.org preprint)
 +
 +solid literature:
 +  * [[http://​onlinelibrary.wiley.com/​doi/​10.1002/​bdm.2052/​full|More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates]] (BDM, 2017)
 +  * [[https://​www.cambridge.org/​core/​services/​aop-cambridge-core/​content/​view/​7D84E452710ACCC6A35D49B8590B614F/​S0140525X17001960a.pdf/​folkeconomic_beliefs_an_evolutionary_cognitive_model.pdf|Folk-Economic Beliefs: An Evolutionary Cognitive Model]]
 +  - [[http://​science.sciencemag.org/​content/​333/​6048/​1393.full|Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future]] (Science, 2011)
 +
 +===== Cultural differences =====
 +
 +{{::​h4ybnan.jpg?​direct&​300|}}
 +
 +(can't find the source of where it's from, there'​s no credit)
  
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