Perceptions of Probability and Numbers

• What Do Words Of Estimative Probability Mean? (Final Version With Abstract)
• Human perception of probability (blog psot)
• Perceptions of Probability and Numbers on Github
  • The data
• Here's how people view the difference between something being 'highly likely' and it being just 'probable'
• Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 257–269. doi:10.1002/for.3980010305

Some related literature:

• The document
• Words of estimative probability
• Chapter 12 Biases in Estimating Probabilities - CIA
• New scale for assessing perceptions of chance: a validation study
• What Number is “Fifty-Fifty”?: Redistributing Excessive50% Responses in Elicited Probabilities
• Verbal probabilities: Very likely to be somewhat more confusing than numbers (PLOSONe, 2019)
• Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science, RSOS, 2019
• If You Say Something Is “Likely,” How Likely Do People Think It Is? by Andrew Mauboussin and Michael J. Mauboussin July 03, 2018
• What is a “likely” amount? Representative (modal) values are considered likely even when their probabilities are low (OBHDP, 2022)

Where I left off (open working links):

• http://www.businessinsider.com/quantitative-perceptions-of-probability-words-2017-5?international=true&r=US&IR=T
• https://mirkomazzoleni.github.io/storytelling/2016/12/17/perception_of_probability/
• http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/03/what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
• http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/02/what-do-words-of-estimative-probability.html
• http://sourcesandmethods.blogspot.com/2008/02/part-2-to-kent-and-beyond-what-do-words.html
• https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/6words.html
• https://www.cia.gov/library/kent-center-occasional-papers/vol1no5.htm
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Words_of_estimative_probability
• https://github.com/zonination/perceptions
• https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art15.html
• https://www.cia.gov/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf

More examples:

• Variability in the interpretation of Dutch probability phrases - a risk for miscommunication (arXiv.org preprint)

solid literature:

• More than 50% or Less than 70% Chance: Pragmatic Implications of Single-Bound Probability Estimates (BDM, 2017)
• Folk-Economic Beliefs: An Evolutionary Cognitive Model

1. Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future (Science, 2011)

(can't find the source of where it's from, there's no credit)